Over the last couple of weeks, there have been secession movements in Spain & Iraq that have arranged secession referendums the resulted in a “yes” vote for independence. In June of 2016, the U.K. voted to exit the E.U. In 2014, Scotland narrowly voted to stay within the U.K., and is now talking about another referendum. And there is even a movement in California that aims to break off California from the United States. Although the heart might swell with pride to think of one’s region becoming its own country, and even though there might be legitimate grievances that can only be resolved by breaking away and forming your own country, there are some practical challenges that need to be addressed before one can even begin to think of making a go of it as an independent country.
- Do you REALLY have popular support for such a move?
When talking about changing a fundamental political arrangement that really underpins everything else, you really need to make sure that you have overwhelming support. Most secessions don’t go as well and as peacefully as the break-up of Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and Slovakia did in 1993. The way to an independent country is likely to be difficult, with sacrifices from the population required. Winning an independence referendum with 50.1% of the vote isn’t going to be enough to sustain support for independence when the going gets tough. Catalonia had sort of a “half-referendum” with 42% turnout that voted 90% for independence. The result would have been excellent with 80% turnout. The Kurdish independence turnout was 72% with 92% voting for independence (which implies a 66% overall support). The Kurdish vote would be enough to change most constitutions and so this independence movement is likely to have sustained support through difficult times.
- Do you have a national identity?
In other words, does your population feel that it is part of an extended family. In the case of Catalonia and Kurdistan, this is clearly the case. Each of these peoples have a distinct language and culture that distinguishes them from the country of which they are ostensibly a part. Even in a country like Canada, the French-speaking people of Quebec have a distinct culture that threatens to split Canada. In the independence struggle that is to come, the sacrifices that the population will likely be called upon to endure requires that they have an “all for one, my family is being threatened” sort of unity. Without this, your independence movement is likely to falter. Consider the case of the current effort to get California to secede. There is no California national identity, and it would take decades to develop one. At this time, Californians still “fee” like Americans. No matter how divorced their politics might be from the rest of America, that and simply hating Donald Trump is not going to be enough to sustain an independence effort that might require real sacrifice.
- Do you have an economic base for your country?
After independence, your country is going to have to make its way in the world. How will it do that? Unless your population has been ghastly tortured and suffered near genocide (or was about to suffer genocide) at that hands of its former countrymen (meaning that just being away from those other folks is its own reward), you are going to have to have an economic base. In the case of Scotland, its economic base was going to be oil. In the case of Catalonia, its major city of Barcelona is an international business hub. Kurdistan has some oil, but also to some extent falls into the “just being on our own is its own reward” category. An independent country of California would have the tech industry. But there are folks in Northern California who want to secede from California and form the 51st state of the U.S. It really isn’t clear what this state would have as an economic base. It isn’t going to do you any good to succeed in your independence bid, only to find out that everyone is impoverished because your country has no real economic base from which to generate wealth.
- What about the people who will lose out when your country secedes?
The fact is that your region is currently part of another country. That means that some people in your region are benefitting from the current arrangement. No matter what your vision of independence looks like, change for these people represents a potential threat. They are doing well under the current arrangements. They may or may not do as well under the new arrangements post-independence. If these folks represent in any way at least a significant minority of your population, you are likely going to have to get support for at least some of them. This means that secession is going to have to be an overwhelmingly obviously better deal. Otherwise, you will have a group of counter-revolutionaries that will look to undermine your project. While you might believe that you have the political muscle to deal with them, if these folks are the economic movers and shakers in your region, you might find yourself (post-independence) with a country that has few people who know how to operate a modern economy. Hence your economy and your people’s standard of living will suffer, and undermine general support for your project.
- Are you powerful enough to get political recognition from other countries (trade relations will be needed)?
One of the key things that you will need is recognition from other countries. Being integrated to some extent into the world economy will be key if your people are to prosper and support your new fledgling country. You will need to establish bi-lateral trade relations with other countries to facilitate this integration. Furthermore, you will need diplomatic support for your new country, possibly to prevent the old country from undermining it or trying reabsorb you through some combination soft and/or hard power. By having countries that recognize your new country, you can raise the cost to the old country of acting against you, thereby making such destabilizing actions less likely.
- What military capability will you have?
No matter how you became a new country, you are going to need at least some military capability. A country with no real military capability is likely to be taken over by its neighbors. Catalonia, with no independent military, has been effectively occupied by Spain. Kurdistan, on the other hand, has some existing military capability, which is why Iraqi forces have not yet tried to simply occupy the whole of Kurdistan. Whether or not they try in the future, the fact that Kurdish military units exist makes this undertaking a more difficult proposition for the Iraqi state than it otherwise would be. Even if you secede peacefully from your old country, military capability can make you a more valuable ally to have, which can open the door to mutually beneficial relations with other countries that will help to improve the economy and quality of life in your new country.
This is not a comprehensive list of issues that might arise. Your bid for independence will also be unique to the specific history, geographical location, and political history of your country. However, these are a few of the issues that you will likely need to confront if you hope to be successful in your bid to change the history of your country and your people.
Good luck!!