Although it could still be revised upward, recent data showing that GDP contracted by a small amount in the first quarter has some questioning whether the U.S. is heading into another recession. While optimists will point to an increasing stock market to assert that business leaders don’t think that a recession is in the near future, pessimists will retort that central bank activities in the stock market mean that it is not as a good a barometer for economic sentiment as it was in the past. In fact, believe in bad economic news can actually be good for the market as traders believe that the Fed will keep interest rates low.

That the U.S. should be close to another recession when more than half of Americans still believe that the U.S. is still in a recession (it officially ended in 2009) is an extremely uncomfortable fact. While it is difficult to predict how long it should be between recessions based on historical data (the postwar period has seen gaps of 1 to 10 years between recessions), usually the majority of the country has recognized that the prior recession was over before a new one was entered into. The fact that more than half (a January, 2014 poll put the number as high as 74%) believe us still to be in a recession means more than that most people don’t keep up with financial news. It means that most people are seeing the benefits of the economic expansion. It used to be said that a rising tide lifts all boats. While that is still true in the natural world, it no longer seems to be true in economic world.

Another recession right now is precisely NOT what this country needs (not that there is really ever a good time for a recession). Another actual recession with its economic pain would further entrench a pessimistic streak that seems to have taken hold, namely that the American Dream is out of reach. One of the characteristics of Americans has historically been that we are optimistic about the future. This optimism has historically fueled the drive to do great things, to build things that were never thought of (the internet), to go places no one had gone before (the moon), and create more wealth and a higher standard of living for more people than anywhere else. A pessimistic America, an America that has less faith in the future, is an America that will be less prosperous and less of a force on the world stage. And that is ultimately not good for anyone.