So the GOP is at the apex of its political power in almost a century. In the states, the GOP has the trifecta (control of the legislature and the governor’s mansion) in 25 states and partial control in at least 19 others (as opposed to 6 trifectas for the Democrats). They have control of Congress and the White House, AND they have 4 solid Supreme Court justices (along with a 5th that sides with them more often than not). So apart from appointing some federal judges and keeping the Supreme Court in nominally Republican hands, why do they seem to struggle to move their agenda along and disappoint their supporters? I believe that there are several reasons.
- The first reason I believe is psychological. The Republican Party is the conservative party of the American political spectrum, which implies that often they are trying to ‘conserve’ and keep things as they are (or were) in a changing world. The result is a defensive mindset that tries to fend off challenges to the status quo or at least limit the changes to tinkering around the edges. Generations of Republican lawmakers have come to Washington to either hinder change or to roll some recent change back to the prior status. The reason that the charge “Republicans want to turn back the clock” sticks is because that has been the default Republican position on many issues for a long time. To actually legislate and produce solutions to problems means changing the status quo and requires an offensive rather than a defensive mindset. This is not something that comes naturally to Republicans.
- The second reason is geographical. Washington D.C. is a town which is more than 90% Democrat. This means that Republican lawmakers (and their staffs) are effectively under siege in their personal lives when they go to Washington. Going into any cocktail party, social event, or even grabbing a bite down the local diner, the Republican in D.C. is looked down upon, and likely has to apologize for being who he/she is and not be too much of a believer in Republicanism (whatever that is) in order to be accepted. So, instead of standing up for their constituents and the people who voted for them, too often they cave (and are likely given some acceptance for being “reasonable”). I’m not saying that this IS what happens, but the results are consistent with this. I suspect that if the capital was moved to Salt Lake City where Republicans aren’t an endangered species, they would be much less likely to cave repeatedly on their principles.
- The third reason is that there isn’t really a unified Republican Party. If this last election revealed anything, it’s that the Republican Establishment is divorced from the concerns of the average Republican voter. When one thinks about it, the Republican Party nationally has delivered very little to its voters over the last 25 years. At a practical level, the Presidency of Bush II brought a small amount of tax relief. The rest of what it delivered was a war in Iraq (Afghanistan can be forgiven because no government on earth could allow 9/11 to go unanswered), a real estate bubble, a financial collapse. The rest of the time (the Clinton and Obama Administrations) Republican voters were electing Republicans to prevent something worse; a hope that Republicans often betrayed by caving in the face of pressure. So what Republican voters feel that they have gotten over the last 25 years is either ‘disappointed expectations’, or in the case of Democrat control, ‘a catastrophe’. At the end of the day, people want something ‘good’ occasionally. Although ‘disappointed expectations’ may be less worse than ‘catastrophe’, people eventually get tired of being played time and again. Eventually, they rebel against an organization that promises ‘good’ and delivers disappointment. The fact that the Republican Party is now in a civil war of sorts, means that it will have difficulty governing.
Taken together, these reasons form (I think) a plausible hypothesis as to why, despite having nominal control of the federal government, the Republicans are producing such limited results. Their mindset and much of their experience mitigates against their being able to put forth a coherent set of legislative principles that can get majority support. Furthermore, Republicans need to adopt the mindset of using their power to reward their voters, just like Democrats do. In addition, they need to stop trying to ‘conserve’ a system that no longer exists by turning back the clock. And, they need to start using their power to shape the system to the benefit of their voters. This is not to argue for specific policies, but rather to argue that the GOP needs a change of mindset if it wants to be able to actually govern.
Right now, both parties have lost the trust (and deservedly so) of a large fraction of their voters. The party that figures out how to regain that trust by actually producing positive results (from the perspective of their respective voters) is the one that will be able to govern the future.