Now that Iraqi Kurdistan and Catalonia have voted for independence, one can be forgiven for being confused as to what it all means. While there are unique reasons specific to these two entities that is pushing their drive for autonomy/independence, the fact is that world (and this is extremely noticeable in the Western world) is experiencing devolutionary pressures in general. Over recent years, there has either talk or active efforts to have Scotland break-away from Britain, Britain from the EU, splitting up Belgium, Catalonia from Spain, and even California & Texas from the U.S. In addition to this, recent years have seen Trump in the U.S. and Macron in France become President, two things that would have seemed impossible just 2 years ago, and now Catalonia. So what is causing the rough political consensus of the last 70 years to begin to fray? I believe that there are several contributing factors.

• Governments (and institutions) have lost legitimacy because they don’t seem to be delivering the goods.

Several decades ago in the U.S, trust in government and institutions was relatively high. While political pundits might argue about why, the simple fact is that while there might have been strong disagreements, the fact in the U.S. was that government, for all of its waste and inefficiency, was seen to have produced a higher standard of living. From 1930 to 1970, the Depression had been conquered, a World War had been won, roads were better, electricity, indoor plumbing were standard for everyone (they hadn’t been in 1930), air travel was better, schools were better, and we had just gone to the moon. In short, life was indisputably easier and government had visibly played a leading role in that. In addition, a strong defense posture (government again) was keeping Soviet tanks out of Western Europe.

Today, government doesn’t seem to be delivering the goods. Roads are worse, schools are worse, and we don’t send spacecraft into space anymore. We pay taxes, but there doesn’t seem to be an improvement in a standard of living, despite the fact that the national debt keeps going up and up. We spend massively on security, but attacks still get through. And we have a couple of 15 year-long failed wars. To use the example of a 40 year span, a person transported directly from 1930 to 1970 would immediately know he was in a different world. Apart from personal electronics, a person transported from 1977 to 2017 would not as there hasn’t been as much physical, visible evidence of improvement. In short, taxes are being paid, government is getting bigger, debt is increasing, but living standards aren’t visibly improving.

• Governments have lost legitimacy because global changes/ and policies are permanently disadvantaging certain groups/regions.

According to economics statistics, globalization has brought many benefits and raised living standards across the globe. Unfortunately in the West, those changes have come at the expense of certain segments of society. The lower-middle, and working classes have seen many of their jobs shipped overseas or automated, and nothing else comparable has replaced it. Meanwhile, new jobs created are in urban areas where political power resides. This has created a long observed trend in the West in which society is splitting into an upper class and everyone else. Because the political power resides in urbane areas that are doing well, those who actually make up government and economic elite (including the civil servants who have good salaries, great benefits, a cushy work schedule (in many cases), and an excellent retirement package; paid for by taxpayers who will never see those things), assume that everything is going well. Meanwhile, they continue to push trade policies and regulations (including environmental regulations) that lead directly to lack of opportunity in places that the elite don’t visit. If a country is to remain a country, there has to be a sense among the population that we are a family and all in this together. Instead, some governments have been essentially ignoring the pain and complaints of large parts of the population.

• Governments have lost legitimacy because the governing structures seem incapable of changing.

Although there are elections and people clamor for reform by electing the other guy, nothing has really changed. In the U.S., people were turned off by one party’s ineffectual war and fiscal irresponsibility turned to the other party, which produced more ineffectual war and fiscal irresponsibility. The fact that an attempt to reform healthcare in the U.S. revealed a government that couldn’t even produce a website without major effort, shows that an ineffectual government continues to be ineffectual no matter who is running it. Several attempts to change the President/Congress political party mix resulted in no discernable change in how things are done. Consequently, the country elected an outsider with political experience in an attempt to shake things up and reform things, the true sign of a political class/government that has lost legitimacy.

• Governments have lost legitimacy because they seem unwilling to protect their populations against foreign threats.

This can be most often seen in the area of immigration. The elites, in the U.S. and in Europe, seem to have a consensus that immigration is a good thing (morally and economically) full stop. While this can be the case, it is not a fact that all immigration is morally and economically a good thing. Massive immigration imposes costs on communities as well as benefits. There is increased competition for jobs. In some cases, crime might increase. There is an impact on the countries social welfare system, not to mention that citizens might have to be competing with immigrants for those resources as well. In addition, massive immigration from Islamic countries has heightened the risk of terrorism. In short, elite opinion views people who point this out and complain about it (i.e. those citizens who feel the impact most acutely) as being horrible, racist people whose struggles and views are illegitimate. In short, the central governments have essentially abandoned swaths (and in some cases geographically concentrated swaths) of their populations. More concern about foreigners than citizens dissolves the social contract.

In summary, the political upheaval being faced in the West today has deep roots and grievances that go beyond a single policy or a single election. The causes, in some cases, can go back decades or centuries, and frankly may not be resolvable under the current political constructs.

While modern communications technology makes it easier to organize and splinter groups can attain a level of visibility that they would not have in earlier times, it takes real, legitimate grievances to start a serious political movement. What have seen recently are massive signs that many segments in these societies have lost faith in their governmental institutions. Successful secession votes in Kurdistan and Catalonia are the ultimate signal of failing government legitimacy. Without massive reform, expect more secession movements in the future.