Eight years after the financial crisis, many are still asking, “when will things return to normal”. In this case, the normal that they are referring to is largely the period from 1982 to 2007 when solid economic growth, punctuated by 2 short recessions, was the norm.

Often in periods of fundamental historical change, people are tempted to see the shift as a short, transitory, departure from the status quo and the historical order of things. At that time, it is simply seen as a matter of just muddling through this, or winning the next election and reversing the programs of the other side, and then we will be back where we want to be. People at the time thought that once WWI was over, things would go back to the way that they had been. Undoubtedly Republicans in the 1930’s thought that the New Deal could be reversed. The South thought that in time, it would rise again and reverse the verdict of the Civil War. All of these brief short periods, fundamentally and irreversibly altered the dynamics of society and the world.

Today, we too are living through a historically altering time period. While some may speak of a “New Normal” with permanently lower economic growth, most of these folks seem to imagine that Western societies will continue on the current trajectory that they have been on since the end of WWII, except that they will have lower economic growth. In the U.S., these folks seem to think that once this Donald Trump foolishness is dispensed with and Hillary Clinton is safely in the White House, then the world will continue on the way that it is supposed to; the way it is has largely gone on for 3 generations.

Unfortunately for this view, the expression “New Normal” is a declaration that economic growth will never return to the 1982-2007 trajectory. It is also a declaration that people should get used to this. However, this view as it is currently expressed appears to ignore the shifting of the political landscape that has taken place in countries across the West. From the Tea Party movement in the U.S., to the National Front in France, The Freedom Party in the Netherlands, the UK Independence Party in Great Britain, and others, nationalist & populist parties are, where they are not actually setting the agenda, at least asserting themselves as political players to be taken seriously. Fifteen years ago, many of these parties didn’t even exist, and those that did were largely considered jokes. The fact that these parties have the influence that they do, never mind the fact that someone like Donald Trump could get as far as he has, means that the current political-economic structure that has existed over the last 70 years or so is no longer meeting the needs of a significant fraction of the population. While “New Normal” adherents may delude themselves and think that they can return to the “good old days” with a regulatory tweak here, a tax cut there, or an increase in a government program over here, the rise of these parties says that they are not likely correct in this belief.

In the last 20 years, communications technology has changed the game. Today, people can connect with like-minded people in ways that they couldn’t before. The internet has allowed us to compose playlists to each of our specific tastes quickly, custom order automobiles with the specific features that we want (and without having to pay for those we don’t), check out multiple restaurants on a device in our hand, etc. In short, the power to have what we want, when we want, and how much we want, is greater than ever before in human history. The idea that a regulatory/governing structure, the foundations of which were constructed 80 years ago before anyone had televisions and that specializes in dispensing slow, one-size-fits-all solutions with a take-it-or-leave-it attitude, is going to be acceptable to the Western population over the next few decades is, frankly, probably wishful thinking. The idea that we have to just “shut up and take it” is something that fewer and fewer people are going to be willing to accept.

So when will things return to normal? Probably Never.