Over the last week, the talk of the punditry is the apparent monumental shift in U.S. policy towards Cuba since JFK was President. It appears that the U.S. will begin down the path of normalizing relations with Cuba. While some (especially on the right) are upset about this change and some (also on the right) believe that this is yet more confirmation that Obama is a closet socialist, the policy change is long overdue and one that Americans should embrace if they want Cuba to be a free, open, and economically prosperous society.

The first reason for embracing this policy is that the fact that Cuba is willing to respond positively to these overtures is recognition that they need the United States. Another way of looking at it is that it is a tacit admission that the socialism the Cuba thought would bring it economic prosperity hasn’t. While America hasn’t really thought much about Cuba over the last 30 years or so, Cuba has thought a lot about America. For a country that has viewed the U.S. as a mortal threat for so long and who the government has blamed for its economic woes, normalized relations that will likely open the country up to American tourists, American dollars, and American influence, could very well have the effect of undermining the regime. The historical record tends to be that once a country/economy that is closed to the United States opens to it, economic improvement (if not always political freedom i.e. Vietnam, China, etc.) tends to follow. Once people have a taste of prosperity, they tend to want it to continue, and this can be very destabilizing to autocratic regimes. Even China, as imposing as the Communist Party still looks on the outside, owes its legitimacy to the tacit bargain that it has stuck with the population that it will keep the prosperity growing in exchange for power. If it fails in this, the regime could become quite unstable, something that would likely be positive for U.S. geopolitical goals in the region. It would be ironic if it was the scrapping of the U.S. embargo on Cuba which was intended to bring down Castro that ending up setting in motion the forces that led to the end of single party rule in Cuba.

The second reason for ending the embargo and normalizing relations with Cuba is that embargo simply hasn’t worked. Its goal was to end the Castro regime and communism in Cuba and it simply hasn’t happened. Keeping it in place for 3 more years, or 5 more years, or 10 more years isn’t likely to have the desired effect. Even if communism were to collapse in that time, a subsequent claim that it was due to the embargo would be highly suspect. To put it another way, when people have been born, grown up, lived lives, had kids, and then passed on, all the while a certain policy was in place, it is hard to credit any subsequent ‘victory’ for that specific policy. I don’t think that the embargo was put in place with the idea that Castro (or the Castros to be more accurate) would still be in power in 2014. Consequently, as embarrassing as it might be to some and as painful as it maybe for some to hear the Castros spinning the détente’ as the U.S. giving up in failure, leaving a failed policy in place doesn’t promote U.S. interests.

Whatever else one thinks of President Obama’s policies, changing this policy is more likely to help U.S. interests in the region than damage them. Historically, opening to the U.S. has often (Eastern Europe) but not always (China, Russia, Vietnam) led to freer government & populations friendly to the U.S. as the people have tasted the economic benefits of a freer market. Even in those countries whose governments aren’t exactly friends of the U.S., the opening of the country to U.S. trade has benefited the population and contact with American businesspeople and tourists likely led to an improved American image in those countries among the general population. Over time, this is likely to lead to more trade with the U.S. and also to governments that are, if not friendly, at least less hostile to the U.S. To take a hostile and closed off enemy and turn them into a trading partner and, maybe eventually, a friend, strengthens the U.S. economically and politically.

Changing U.S. policy towards Cuba has the potential to accomplish both of these goals.